"""Utility functions for price data calculations.""" from __future__ import annotations import logging import statistics from datetime import datetime, timedelta from typing import Any from homeassistant.util import dt as dt_util from .const import ( DEFAULT_VOLATILITY_THRESHOLD_HIGH, DEFAULT_VOLATILITY_THRESHOLD_MODERATE, DEFAULT_VOLATILITY_THRESHOLD_VERY_HIGH, PRICE_LEVEL_MAPPING, PRICE_LEVEL_NORMAL, PRICE_RATING_NORMAL, VOLATILITY_HIGH, VOLATILITY_LOW, VOLATILITY_MODERATE, VOLATILITY_VERY_HIGH, ) _LOGGER = logging.getLogger(__name__) MINUTES_PER_INTERVAL = 15 MIN_PRICES_FOR_VOLATILITY = 2 # Minimum number of price values needed for volatility calculation # Volatility factors for adaptive trend thresholds # These multipliers adjust the base trend thresholds based on price volatility. # The volatility *ranges* are user-configurable (threshold_moderate, threshold_high), # but the *reaction strength* (factors) is fixed for predictable behavior. # This separation allows users to adjust volatility classification without # unexpectedly changing trend sensitivity. # # Factor selection based on lookahead volatility: # - Below moderate threshold (e.g., <15%): Use 0.6 → 40% more sensitive # - Moderate to high (e.g., 15-30%): Use 1.0 → as configured by user # - High and above (e.g., ≥30%): Use 1.4 → 40% less sensitive (filters noise) VOLATILITY_FACTOR_SENSITIVE = 0.6 # Low volatility → more responsive VOLATILITY_FACTOR_NORMAL = 1.0 # Moderate volatility → baseline VOLATILITY_FACTOR_INSENSITIVE = 1.4 # High volatility → noise filtering def calculate_volatility_level( prices: list[float], threshold_moderate: float | None = None, threshold_high: float | None = None, threshold_very_high: float | None = None, ) -> str: """ Calculate volatility level from price list using coefficient of variation. Volatility indicates how much prices fluctuate during a period, which helps determine whether active load shifting is worthwhile. Uses the coefficient of variation (CV = std_dev / mean * 100%) for relative comparison that works across different price levels and period lengths. Args: prices: List of price values (in any unit, typically major currency units like EUR or NOK) threshold_moderate: Custom threshold for MODERATE level (default: use DEFAULT_VOLATILITY_THRESHOLD_MODERATE) threshold_high: Custom threshold for HIGH level (default: use DEFAULT_VOLATILITY_THRESHOLD_HIGH) threshold_very_high: Custom threshold for VERY_HIGH level (default: use DEFAULT_VOLATILITY_THRESHOLD_VERY_HIGH) Returns: Volatility level: "LOW", "MODERATE", "HIGH", or "VERY_HIGH" (uppercase) Examples: - CV < 15%: LOW → minimal optimization potential, prices relatively stable - 15% ≤ CV < 30%: MODERATE → some optimization worthwhile, noticeable variation - 30% ≤ CV < 50%: HIGH → strong optimization recommended, significant swings - CV ≥ 50%: VERY_HIGH → maximum optimization potential, extreme volatility Note: Requires at least 2 price values for calculation. Returns LOW if insufficient data. Works identically for short periods (2-3 intervals) and long periods (96 intervals/day). """ # Need at least 2 values for standard deviation if len(prices) < MIN_PRICES_FOR_VOLATILITY: return VOLATILITY_LOW # Use provided thresholds or fall back to constants t_moderate = threshold_moderate if threshold_moderate is not None else DEFAULT_VOLATILITY_THRESHOLD_MODERATE t_high = threshold_high if threshold_high is not None else DEFAULT_VOLATILITY_THRESHOLD_HIGH t_very_high = threshold_very_high if threshold_very_high is not None else DEFAULT_VOLATILITY_THRESHOLD_VERY_HIGH # Calculate coefficient of variation mean = statistics.mean(prices) if mean <= 0: # Avoid division by zero or negative mean (shouldn't happen with prices) return VOLATILITY_LOW std_dev = statistics.stdev(prices) coefficient_of_variation = (std_dev / mean) * 100 # As percentage # Classify based on thresholds if coefficient_of_variation < t_moderate: return VOLATILITY_LOW if coefficient_of_variation < t_high: return VOLATILITY_MODERATE if coefficient_of_variation < t_very_high: return VOLATILITY_HIGH return VOLATILITY_VERY_HIGH def calculate_trailing_average_for_interval( interval_start: datetime, all_prices: list[dict[str, Any]], ) -> float | None: """ Calculate the trailing 24-hour average price for a specific interval. Args: interval_start: The start time of the interval we're calculating for all_prices: List of all available price intervals (yesterday + today + tomorrow) Returns: The average price of all intervals in the 24 hours before interval_start, or None if insufficient data is available. """ if not all_prices: return None # Calculate the lookback period: 24 hours before this interval lookback_start = interval_start - timedelta(hours=24) # Collect all prices that fall within the 24-hour lookback window matching_prices = [] for price_data in all_prices: starts_at_str = price_data.get("startsAt") if not starts_at_str: continue # Parse the timestamp price_time = dt_util.parse_datetime(starts_at_str) if price_time is None: continue # Convert to local timezone for comparison price_time = dt_util.as_local(price_time) # Check if this price falls within our lookback window # Include prices that start >= lookback_start and start < interval_start if lookback_start <= price_time < interval_start: total_price = price_data.get("total") if total_price is not None: matching_prices.append(float(total_price)) if not matching_prices: _LOGGER.debug( "No prices found in 24-hour lookback window for interval starting at %s (lookback: %s to %s)", interval_start, lookback_start, interval_start, ) return None # Calculate and return the average return sum(matching_prices) / len(matching_prices) def calculate_difference_percentage( current_interval_price: float, trailing_average: float | None, ) -> float | None: """ Calculate the difference percentage between current price and trailing average. This mimics the API's "difference" field from priceRating endpoint. Args: current_interval_price: The current interval's price trailing_average: The 24-hour trailing average price Returns: The percentage difference: ((current - average) / average) * 100 or None if trailing_average is None or zero. """ if trailing_average is None or trailing_average == 0: return None return ((current_interval_price - trailing_average) / trailing_average) * 100 def calculate_rating_level( difference: float | None, threshold_low: float, threshold_high: float, ) -> str | None: """ Calculate the rating level based on difference percentage and thresholds. This mimics the API's "level" field from priceRating endpoint. Args: difference: The difference percentage (from calculate_difference_percentage) threshold_low: The low threshold percentage (typically -100 to 0) threshold_high: The high threshold percentage (typically 0 to 100) Returns: "LOW" if difference <= threshold_low "HIGH" if difference >= threshold_high "NORMAL" otherwise None if difference is None """ if difference is None: return None # If difference falls in both ranges (shouldn't normally happen), return NORMAL if difference <= threshold_low and difference >= threshold_high: return PRICE_RATING_NORMAL # Classify based on thresholds if difference <= threshold_low: return "LOW" if difference >= threshold_high: return "HIGH" return PRICE_RATING_NORMAL def _process_price_interval( price_interval: dict[str, Any], all_prices: list[dict[str, Any]], threshold_low: float, threshold_high: float, day_label: str, ) -> None: """ Process a single price interval and add difference and rating_level. Args: price_interval: The price interval to process (modified in place) all_prices: All available price intervals for lookback calculation threshold_low: Low threshold percentage threshold_high: High threshold percentage day_label: Label for logging ("today" or "tomorrow") """ starts_at_str = price_interval.get("startsAt") if not starts_at_str: return starts_at = dt_util.parse_datetime(starts_at_str) if starts_at is None: return starts_at = dt_util.as_local(starts_at) current_interval_price = price_interval.get("total") if current_interval_price is None: return # Calculate trailing average trailing_avg = calculate_trailing_average_for_interval(starts_at, all_prices) # Calculate and set the difference and rating_level if trailing_avg is not None: difference = calculate_difference_percentage(float(current_interval_price), trailing_avg) price_interval["difference"] = difference # Calculate rating_level based on difference rating_level = calculate_rating_level(difference, threshold_low, threshold_high) price_interval["rating_level"] = rating_level else: # Set to None if we couldn't calculate price_interval["difference"] = None price_interval["rating_level"] = None _LOGGER.debug( "Could not calculate trailing average for %s interval %s", day_label, starts_at, ) def enrich_price_info_with_differences( price_info: dict[str, Any], threshold_low: float | None = None, threshold_high: float | None = None, ) -> dict[str, Any]: """ Enrich price info with calculated 'difference' and 'rating_level' values. Computes the trailing 24-hour average, difference percentage, and rating level for each interval in today and tomorrow (excluding yesterday since it's historical). Args: price_info: Dictionary with 'yesterday', 'today', 'tomorrow' keys threshold_low: Low threshold percentage for rating_level (defaults to -10) threshold_high: High threshold percentage for rating_level (defaults to 10) Returns: Updated price_info dict with 'difference' and 'rating_level' added """ if threshold_low is None: threshold_low = -10 if threshold_high is None: threshold_high = 10 yesterday_prices = price_info.get("yesterday", []) today_prices = price_info.get("today", []) tomorrow_prices = price_info.get("tomorrow", []) # Combine all prices for lookback calculation all_prices = yesterday_prices + today_prices + tomorrow_prices _LOGGER.debug( "Enriching price info with differences and rating levels: " "yesterday=%d, today=%d, tomorrow=%d, thresholds: low=%.2f, high=%.2f", len(yesterday_prices), len(today_prices), len(tomorrow_prices), threshold_low, threshold_high, ) # Process today's prices for price_interval in today_prices: _process_price_interval(price_interval, all_prices, threshold_low, threshold_high, "today") # Process tomorrow's prices for price_interval in tomorrow_prices: _process_price_interval(price_interval, all_prices, threshold_low, threshold_high, "tomorrow") return price_info def find_price_data_for_interval(price_info: Any, target_time: datetime) -> dict | None: """ Find the price data for a specific 15-minute interval timestamp. Args: price_info: The price info dictionary from Tibber API target_time: The target timestamp to find price data for Returns: Price data dict if found, None otherwise """ day_key = "tomorrow" if target_time.date() > dt_util.now().date() else "today" search_days = [day_key, "tomorrow" if day_key == "today" else "today"] for search_day in search_days: day_prices = price_info.get(search_day, []) if not day_prices: continue for price_data in day_prices: starts_at = dt_util.parse_datetime(price_data["startsAt"]) if starts_at is None: continue starts_at = dt_util.as_local(starts_at) interval_end = starts_at + timedelta(minutes=MINUTES_PER_INTERVAL) if starts_at <= target_time < interval_end and starts_at.date() == target_time.date(): return price_data return None def aggregate_price_levels(levels: list[str]) -> str: """ Aggregate multiple price levels into a single representative level using median. Takes a list of price level strings (e.g., "VERY_CHEAP", "NORMAL", "EXPENSIVE") and returns the median level after sorting by numeric values. This naturally tends toward "NORMAL" when levels are mixed. Args: levels: List of price level strings from intervals Returns: The median price level string, or PRICE_LEVEL_NORMAL if input is empty """ if not levels: return PRICE_LEVEL_NORMAL # Convert levels to numeric values and sort numeric_values = [PRICE_LEVEL_MAPPING.get(level, 0) for level in levels] numeric_values.sort() # Get median (middle value for odd length, lower-middle for even length) median_idx = len(numeric_values) // 2 median_value = numeric_values[median_idx] # Convert back to level string for level, value in PRICE_LEVEL_MAPPING.items(): if value == median_value: return level return PRICE_LEVEL_NORMAL def aggregate_price_rating(differences: list[float], threshold_low: float, threshold_high: float) -> tuple[str, float]: """ Aggregate multiple price differences into a single rating level. Calculates the average difference percentage across multiple intervals and applies thresholds to determine the overall rating level. Args: differences: List of difference percentages from intervals threshold_low: The low threshold percentage for LOW rating threshold_high: The high threshold percentage for HIGH rating Returns: Tuple of (rating_level, average_difference) rating_level: "LOW", "NORMAL", or "HIGH" average_difference: The averaged difference percentage """ if not differences: return PRICE_RATING_NORMAL, 0.0 # Filter out None values valid_differences = [d for d in differences if d is not None] if not valid_differences: return PRICE_RATING_NORMAL, 0.0 # Calculate average difference avg_difference = sum(valid_differences) / len(valid_differences) # Apply thresholds rating_level = calculate_rating_level(avg_difference, threshold_low, threshold_high) return rating_level or PRICE_RATING_NORMAL, avg_difference def aggregate_period_levels(interval_data_list: list[dict[str, Any]]) -> str | None: """ Aggregate price levels across multiple intervals in a period. Extracts "level" from each interval and uses the same logic as aggregate_price_levels() to determine the overall level for the period. Args: interval_data_list: List of price interval dictionaries with "level" keys Returns: The aggregated level string in lowercase (e.g., "very_cheap", "normal", "expensive"), or None if no valid levels found """ levels: list[str] = [] for interval in interval_data_list: level = interval.get("level") if level is not None and isinstance(level, str): levels.append(level) if not levels: return None aggregated = aggregate_price_levels(levels) # Convert to lowercase for consistency with other enum sensors return aggregated.lower() if aggregated else None def aggregate_period_ratings( interval_data_list: list[dict[str, Any]], threshold_low: float, threshold_high: float, ) -> tuple[str | None, float | None]: """ Aggregate price ratings across multiple intervals in a period. Extracts "difference" from each interval and uses the same logic as aggregate_price_rating() to determine the overall rating for the period. Args: interval_data_list: List of price interval dictionaries with "difference" keys threshold_low: The low threshold percentage for LOW rating threshold_high: The high threshold percentage for HIGH rating Returns: Tuple of (rating_level, average_difference) rating_level: "low", "normal", "high" (lowercase), or None if no valid data average_difference: The averaged difference percentage, or None if no valid data """ differences: list[float] = [] for interval in interval_data_list: diff = interval.get("difference") if diff is not None: differences.append(float(diff)) if not differences: return None, None rating_level, avg_diff = aggregate_price_rating(differences, threshold_low, threshold_high) # Convert to lowercase for consistency with other enum sensors return rating_level.lower() if rating_level else None, avg_diff def _calculate_lookahead_volatility_factor( all_intervals: list[dict[str, Any]], lookahead_intervals: int, volatility_threshold_moderate: float, volatility_threshold_high: float, ) -> float: """ Calculate volatility factor for adaptive thresholds based on lookahead period. Uses the same volatility calculation (coefficient of variation) as volatility sensors, ensuring consistent volatility interpretation across the integration. Args: all_intervals: List of price intervals (today + tomorrow) lookahead_intervals: Number of intervals to analyze for volatility volatility_threshold_moderate: Threshold for moderate volatility (%, e.g., 15) volatility_threshold_high: Threshold for high volatility (%, e.g., 30) Returns: Multiplier for base threshold: - 0.6 for low volatility (< moderate threshold) - 1.0 for moderate volatility (moderate to high threshold) - 1.4 for high volatility (>= high threshold) """ if len(all_intervals) < lookahead_intervals: _LOGGER.debug( "Insufficient data for volatility calculation: need %d intervals, have %d - using factor 1.0", lookahead_intervals, len(all_intervals), ) return 1.0 # Fallback: no adjustment # Extract prices from next N intervals lookahead_prices = [ float(interval["total"]) for interval in all_intervals[:lookahead_intervals] if "total" in interval and interval["total"] is not None ] if not lookahead_prices: _LOGGER.debug("No valid prices in lookahead period - using factor 1.0") return 1.0 # Use the same volatility calculation as volatility sensors (coefficient of variation) # This ensures consistent interpretation of volatility across the integration volatility_level = calculate_volatility_level( prices=lookahead_prices, threshold_moderate=volatility_threshold_moderate, threshold_high=volatility_threshold_high, # Note: We don't use VERY_HIGH threshold here, only LOW/MODERATE/HIGH matter for factor ) # Map volatility level to adjustment factor if volatility_level == VOLATILITY_LOW: factor = VOLATILITY_FACTOR_SENSITIVE # 0.6 → More sensitive trend detection elif volatility_level in (VOLATILITY_MODERATE, VOLATILITY_HIGH): # Treat MODERATE and HIGH the same for trend detection # HIGH volatility means noisy data, so we need less sensitive thresholds factor = VOLATILITY_FACTOR_NORMAL if volatility_level == VOLATILITY_MODERATE else VOLATILITY_FACTOR_INSENSITIVE else: # VOLATILITY_VERY_HIGH (should not occur with our thresholds, but handle it) factor = VOLATILITY_FACTOR_INSENSITIVE # 1.4 → Less sensitive (filter noise) _LOGGER.debug( "Volatility analysis: intervals=%d, prices=%d, " "level=%s, thresholds=(moderate:%.0f%%, high:%.0f%%), factor=%.2f", lookahead_intervals, len(lookahead_prices), volatility_level, volatility_threshold_moderate, volatility_threshold_high, factor, ) return factor def calculate_price_trend( # noqa: PLR0913 - All parameters are necessary for volatility-adaptive calculation current_interval_price: float, future_average: float, threshold_rising: float = 3.0, threshold_falling: float = -3.0, *, volatility_adjustment: bool = True, lookahead_intervals: int | None = None, all_intervals: list[dict[str, Any]] | None = None, volatility_threshold_moderate: float = DEFAULT_VOLATILITY_THRESHOLD_MODERATE, volatility_threshold_high: float = DEFAULT_VOLATILITY_THRESHOLD_HIGH, ) -> tuple[str, float]: """ Calculate price trend by comparing current price with future average. Supports volatility-adaptive thresholds: when enabled, the effective threshold is adjusted based on price volatility in the lookahead period. This makes the trend detection more sensitive during stable periods and less noisy during volatile periods. Uses the same volatility thresholds as configured for volatility sensors, ensuring consistent volatility interpretation across the integration. Args: current_interval_price: Current interval price future_average: Average price of future intervals threshold_rising: Base threshold for rising trend (%, positive, default 3%) threshold_falling: Base threshold for falling trend (%, negative, default -3%) volatility_adjustment: Enable volatility-adaptive thresholds (default True) lookahead_intervals: Number of intervals in trend period for volatility calc all_intervals: Price intervals (today + tomorrow) for volatility calculation volatility_threshold_moderate: User-configured moderate volatility threshold (%) volatility_threshold_high: User-configured high volatility threshold (%) Returns: Tuple of (trend_state, difference_percentage) trend_state: "rising" | "falling" | "stable" difference_percentage: % change from current to future ((future - current) / current * 100) Note: Volatility adjustment factor: - Low volatility (<15%): factor 0.6 → more sensitive (e.g., 3% → 1.8%) - Moderate volatility (15-35%): factor 1.0 → as configured (3%) - High volatility (>35%): factor 1.4 → less sensitive (e.g., 3% → 4.2%) """ if current_interval_price == 0: # Avoid division by zero _LOGGER.debug("Current price is zero - returning stable trend") return "stable", 0.0 # Apply volatility adjustment if enabled and data available effective_rising = threshold_rising effective_falling = threshold_falling volatility_factor = 1.0 if volatility_adjustment and lookahead_intervals and all_intervals: volatility_factor = _calculate_lookahead_volatility_factor( all_intervals, lookahead_intervals, volatility_threshold_moderate, volatility_threshold_high ) effective_rising = threshold_rising * volatility_factor effective_falling = threshold_falling * volatility_factor _LOGGER.debug( "Trend threshold adjustment: base_rising=%.1f%%, base_falling=%.1f%%, " "lookahead_intervals=%d, volatility_factor=%.2f, " "effective_rising=%.1f%%, effective_falling=%.1f%%", threshold_rising, threshold_falling, lookahead_intervals, volatility_factor, effective_rising, effective_falling, ) # Calculate percentage difference from current to future diff_pct = ((future_average - current_interval_price) / current_interval_price) * 100 # Determine trend based on effective thresholds if diff_pct >= effective_rising: trend = "rising" elif diff_pct <= effective_falling: trend = "falling" else: trend = "stable" _LOGGER.debug( "Trend calculation: current=%.4f, future_avg=%.4f, diff=%.1f%%, " "threshold_rising=%.1f%%, threshold_falling=%.1f%%, trend=%s", current_interval_price, future_average, diff_pct, effective_rising, effective_falling, trend, ) return trend, diff_pct