feat(periods): cross-day extension and supersession

Intelligent handling when tomorrow's price data arrives:

1. Cross-Day Extension
   - Late-night periods (starting ≥20:00) can extend past midnight
   - Extension continues while prices remain below daily_min × (1+flex)
   - Maximum extension to 08:00 next day (covers typical night low)

2. Period Supersession
   - Obsolete late-night today periods filtered when tomorrow is better
   - Tomorrow must be ≥10% cheaper to supersede (SUPERSESSION_PRICE_IMPROVEMENT_PCT)
   - Prevents stale relaxation periods from persisting

Impact: Late-night periods reflect tomorrow's data when available.
This commit is contained in:
Julian Pawlowski 2025-12-22 23:21:57 +00:00
parent 5ef0396c8b
commit 4158e7b1fd
2 changed files with 449 additions and 3 deletions

View file

@ -16,8 +16,10 @@ from .period_building import (
add_interval_ends, add_interval_ends,
build_periods, build_periods,
calculate_reference_prices, calculate_reference_prices,
extend_periods_across_midnight,
filter_periods_by_end_date, filter_periods_by_end_date,
filter_periods_by_min_length, filter_periods_by_min_length,
filter_superseded_periods,
split_intervals_by_day, split_intervals_by_day,
) )
from .period_statistics import ( from .period_statistics import (
@ -188,7 +190,7 @@ def calculate_periods(
# Sensors filter further for today+tomorrow, services can access all cached periods # Sensors filter further for today+tomorrow, services can access all cached periods
raw_periods = filter_periods_by_end_date(raw_periods, time=time) raw_periods = filter_periods_by_end_date(raw_periods, time=time)
# Step 8: Extract lightweight period summaries (no full price data) # Step 7: Extract lightweight period summaries (no full price data)
# Note: Periods are filtered by end date to keep yesterday/today/tomorrow. # Note: Periods are filtered by end date to keep yesterday/today/tomorrow.
# This preserves periods that started day-before-yesterday but end yesterday. # This preserves periods that started day-before-yesterday but end yesterday.
thresholds = TibberPricesThresholdConfig( thresholds = TibberPricesThresholdConfig(
@ -207,6 +209,26 @@ def calculate_periods(
time=time, time=time,
) )
# Step 8: Cross-day extension for late-night periods
# If a best-price period ends near midnight and tomorrow has continued low prices,
# extend the period across midnight to give users the full cheap window
period_summaries = extend_periods_across_midnight(
period_summaries,
all_prices_sorted,
price_context,
time=time,
reverse_sort=reverse_sort,
)
# Step 9: Filter superseded periods
# When tomorrow data is available, late-night today periods that were found via
# relaxation may be obsolete if tomorrow has significantly better alternatives
period_summaries = filter_superseded_periods(
period_summaries,
time=time,
reverse_sort=reverse_sort,
)
return { return {
"periods": period_summaries, # Lightweight summaries only "periods": period_summaries, # Lightweight summaries only
"metadata": { "metadata": {

View file

@ -3,13 +3,12 @@
from __future__ import annotations from __future__ import annotations
import logging import logging
from datetime import date, datetime, timedelta
from typing import TYPE_CHECKING, Any from typing import TYPE_CHECKING, Any
from custom_components.tibber_prices.const import PRICE_LEVEL_MAPPING from custom_components.tibber_prices.const import PRICE_LEVEL_MAPPING
if TYPE_CHECKING: if TYPE_CHECKING:
from datetime import date
from custom_components.tibber_prices.coordinator.time_service import TibberPricesTimeService from custom_components.tibber_prices.coordinator.time_service import TibberPricesTimeService
from .level_filtering import ( from .level_filtering import (
@ -281,3 +280,428 @@ def filter_periods_by_end_date(periods: list[list[dict]], *, time: TibberPricesT
filtered.append(period) filtered.append(period)
return filtered return filtered
def _categorize_periods_for_supersession(
period_summaries: list[dict],
today: date,
tomorrow: date,
late_hour_threshold: int,
early_hour_limit: int,
) -> tuple[list[dict], list[dict], list[dict]]:
"""Categorize periods into today-late, tomorrow-early, and other."""
today_late: list[dict] = []
tomorrow_early: list[dict] = []
other: list[dict] = []
for period in period_summaries:
period_start = period.get("start")
period_end = period.get("end")
if not period_start or not period_end:
other.append(period)
# Today late-night periods: START today at or after late_hour_threshold (e.g., 20:00)
# Note: period_end could be tomorrow (e.g., 23:30-00:00 spans midnight)
elif period_start.date() == today and period_start.hour >= late_hour_threshold:
today_late.append(period)
# Tomorrow early-morning periods: START tomorrow before early_hour_limit (e.g., 08:00)
elif period_start.date() == tomorrow and period_start.hour < early_hour_limit:
tomorrow_early.append(period)
else:
other.append(period)
return today_late, tomorrow_early, other
def _filter_superseded_today_periods(
today_late_periods: list[dict],
best_tomorrow: dict,
best_tomorrow_price: float,
improvement_threshold: float,
) -> list[dict]:
"""Filter today periods that are superseded by a better tomorrow period."""
kept: list[dict] = []
for today_period in today_late_periods:
today_price = today_period.get("price_mean")
if today_price is None:
kept.append(today_period)
continue
# Calculate how much better tomorrow is (as percentage)
improvement_pct = ((today_price - best_tomorrow_price) / today_price * 100) if today_price > 0 else 0
_LOGGER.debug(
"Supersession check: Today %s-%s (%.4f) vs Tomorrow %s-%s (%.4f) = %.1f%% improvement (threshold: %.1f%%)",
today_period["start"].strftime("%H:%M"),
today_period["end"].strftime("%H:%M"),
today_price,
best_tomorrow["start"].strftime("%H:%M"),
best_tomorrow["end"].strftime("%H:%M"),
best_tomorrow_price,
improvement_pct,
improvement_threshold,
)
if improvement_pct >= improvement_threshold:
_LOGGER.info(
"Period superseded: Today %s-%s (%.2f) replaced by Tomorrow %s-%s (%.2f, %.1f%% better)",
today_period["start"].strftime("%H:%M"),
today_period["end"].strftime("%H:%M"),
today_price,
best_tomorrow["start"].strftime("%H:%M"),
best_tomorrow["end"].strftime("%H:%M"),
best_tomorrow_price,
improvement_pct,
)
else:
kept.append(today_period)
return kept
def filter_superseded_periods(
period_summaries: list[dict],
*,
time: TibberPricesTimeService,
reverse_sort: bool,
) -> list[dict]:
"""
Filter out late-night today periods that are superseded by better tomorrow periods.
When tomorrow's data becomes available, some late-night periods that were found
through relaxation may no longer make sense. If tomorrow has a significantly
better period in the early morning, the late-night today period is obsolete.
Example:
- Today 23:30-00:00 at 0.70 kr (found via relaxation, was best available)
- Tomorrow 04:00-05:30 at 0.50 kr (much better alternative)
The today period is superseded and should be filtered out
This only applies to best-price periods (reverse_sort=False).
Peak-price periods are not filtered this way.
"""
from .types import ( # noqa: PLC0415
CROSS_DAY_LATE_PERIOD_START_HOUR,
CROSS_DAY_MAX_EXTENSION_HOUR,
SUPERSESSION_PRICE_IMPROVEMENT_PCT,
)
_LOGGER.debug(
"filter_superseded_periods called: %d periods, reverse_sort=%s",
len(period_summaries) if period_summaries else 0,
reverse_sort,
)
# Only filter for best-price periods
if reverse_sort or not period_summaries:
return period_summaries
now = time.now()
today = now.date()
tomorrow = today + timedelta(days=1)
# Categorize periods
today_late, tomorrow_early, other = _categorize_periods_for_supersession(
period_summaries,
today,
tomorrow,
CROSS_DAY_LATE_PERIOD_START_HOUR,
CROSS_DAY_MAX_EXTENSION_HOUR,
)
_LOGGER.debug(
"Supersession categorization: today_late=%d, tomorrow_early=%d, other=%d",
len(today_late),
len(tomorrow_early),
len(other),
)
# If no tomorrow early periods, nothing to compare against
if not tomorrow_early:
_LOGGER.debug("No tomorrow early periods - skipping supersession check")
return period_summaries
# Find the best tomorrow early period (lowest mean price)
best_tomorrow = min(tomorrow_early, key=lambda p: p.get("price_mean", float("inf")))
best_tomorrow_price = best_tomorrow.get("price_mean")
if best_tomorrow_price is None:
return period_summaries
# Filter superseded today periods
kept_today = _filter_superseded_today_periods(
today_late,
best_tomorrow,
best_tomorrow_price,
SUPERSESSION_PRICE_IMPROVEMENT_PCT,
)
# Reconstruct and sort by start time
result = other + kept_today + tomorrow_early
result.sort(key=lambda p: p.get("start") or time.now())
return result
def _is_period_eligible_for_extension(
period: dict,
today: date,
late_hour_threshold: int,
) -> bool:
"""
Check if a period is eligible for cross-day extension.
Eligibility criteria:
- Period has valid start and end times
- Period ends on today (not yesterday or tomorrow)
- Period ends late (after late_hour_threshold, e.g. 20:00)
"""
period_end = period.get("end")
period_start = period.get("start")
if not period_end or not period_start:
return False
if period_end.date() != today:
return False
return period_end.hour >= late_hour_threshold
def _find_extension_intervals(
period_end: datetime,
price_lookup: dict[str, dict],
criteria: Any,
max_extension_time: datetime,
interval_duration: timedelta,
) -> list[dict]:
"""
Find consecutive intervals after period_end that meet criteria.
Iterates forward from period_end, adding intervals while they
meet the flex and min_distance criteria. Stops at first failure
or when reaching max_extension_time.
"""
from .level_filtering import check_interval_criteria # noqa: PLC0415
extension_intervals: list[dict] = []
check_time = period_end
while check_time < max_extension_time:
price_data = price_lookup.get(check_time.isoformat())
if not price_data:
break # No more data
price = float(price_data["total"])
in_flex, meets_min_distance = check_interval_criteria(price, criteria)
if not (in_flex and meets_min_distance):
break # Criteria no longer met
extension_intervals.append(price_data)
check_time = check_time + interval_duration
return extension_intervals
def _collect_original_period_prices(
period_start: datetime,
period_end: datetime,
price_lookup: dict[str, dict],
interval_duration: timedelta,
) -> list[float]:
"""Collect prices from original period for CV calculation."""
prices: list[float] = []
current = period_start
while current < period_end:
price_data = price_lookup.get(current.isoformat())
if price_data:
prices.append(float(price_data["total"]))
current = current + interval_duration
return prices
def _build_extended_period(
period: dict,
extension_intervals: list[dict],
combined_prices: list[float],
combined_cv: float,
interval_duration: timedelta,
) -> dict:
"""Create extended period dict with updated statistics."""
period_start = period["start"]
period_end = period["end"]
new_end = period_end + (interval_duration * len(extension_intervals))
extended = period.copy()
extended["end"] = new_end
extended["duration_minutes"] = int((new_end - period_start).total_seconds() / 60)
extended["period_interval_count"] = len(combined_prices)
extended["cross_day_extended"] = True
extended["cross_day_extension_intervals"] = len(extension_intervals)
# Recalculate price statistics
extended["price_min"] = min(combined_prices)
extended["price_max"] = max(combined_prices)
extended["price_mean"] = sum(combined_prices) / len(combined_prices)
extended["price_spread"] = extended["price_max"] - extended["price_min"]
extended["coefficient_of_variation"] = round(combined_cv, 1)
return extended
def extend_periods_across_midnight(
period_summaries: list[dict],
all_prices: list[dict],
price_context: dict[str, Any],
*,
time: TibberPricesTimeService,
reverse_sort: bool,
) -> list[dict]:
"""
Extend late-night periods across midnight if favorable prices continue.
When a period ends close to midnight and tomorrow's data shows continued
favorable prices, extend the period into the next day. This prevents
artificial period breaks at midnight when it's actually better to continue.
Example: Best price period 22:00-23:45 today could extend to 04:00 tomorrow
if prices remain low overnight.
Rules:
- Only extends periods ending after CROSS_DAY_LATE_PERIOD_START_HOUR (20:00)
- Won't extend beyond CROSS_DAY_MAX_EXTENSION_HOUR (08:00) next day
- Extension must pass same flex criteria as original period
- Quality Gate (CV check) applies to extended period
Args:
period_summaries: List of period summary dicts (already processed)
all_prices: All price intervals including tomorrow
price_context: Dict with ref_prices, avg_prices, flex, min_distance_from_avg
time: Time service instance
reverse_sort: True for peak price, False for best price
Returns:
Updated list of period summaries with extensions applied
"""
from custom_components.tibber_prices.utils.price import calculate_coefficient_of_variation # noqa: PLC0415
from .types import ( # noqa: PLC0415
CROSS_DAY_LATE_PERIOD_START_HOUR,
CROSS_DAY_MAX_EXTENSION_HOUR,
PERIOD_MAX_CV,
TibberPricesIntervalCriteria,
)
if not period_summaries or not all_prices:
return period_summaries
# Build price lookup by timestamp
price_lookup: dict[str, dict] = {}
for price_data in all_prices:
interval_time = time.get_interval_time(price_data)
if interval_time:
price_lookup[interval_time.isoformat()] = price_data
ref_prices = price_context.get("ref_prices", {})
avg_prices = price_context.get("avg_prices", {})
flex = price_context.get("flex", 0.15)
min_distance = price_context.get("min_distance_from_avg", 0)
now = time.now()
today = now.date()
tomorrow = today + timedelta(days=1)
interval_duration = time.get_interval_duration()
# Max extension time (e.g., 08:00 tomorrow)
max_extension_time = time.start_of_local_day(now) + timedelta(days=1, hours=CROSS_DAY_MAX_EXTENSION_HOUR)
extended_summaries = []
for period in period_summaries:
# Check eligibility for extension
if not _is_period_eligible_for_extension(period, today, CROSS_DAY_LATE_PERIOD_START_HOUR):
extended_summaries.append(period)
continue
# Get tomorrow's reference prices
tomorrow_ref = ref_prices.get(tomorrow) or ref_prices.get(str(tomorrow))
tomorrow_avg = avg_prices.get(tomorrow) or avg_prices.get(str(tomorrow))
if tomorrow_ref is None or tomorrow_avg is None:
extended_summaries.append(period)
continue
# Set up criteria for extension check
criteria = TibberPricesIntervalCriteria(
ref_price=tomorrow_ref,
avg_price=tomorrow_avg,
flex=flex,
min_distance_from_avg=min_distance,
reverse_sort=reverse_sort,
)
# Find extension intervals
extension_intervals = _find_extension_intervals(
period["end"],
price_lookup,
criteria,
max_extension_time,
interval_duration,
)
if not extension_intervals:
extended_summaries.append(period)
continue
# Collect all prices for CV check
original_prices = _collect_original_period_prices(
period["start"],
period["end"],
price_lookup,
interval_duration,
)
extension_prices = [float(p["total"]) for p in extension_intervals]
combined_prices = original_prices + extension_prices
# Quality Gate: Check CV of extended period
combined_cv = calculate_coefficient_of_variation(combined_prices)
if combined_cv is not None and combined_cv <= PERIOD_MAX_CV:
# Extension passes quality gate
extended_period = _build_extended_period(
period,
extension_intervals,
combined_prices,
combined_cv,
interval_duration,
)
_LOGGER.info(
"Cross-day extension: Period %s-%s extended to %s (+%d intervals, CV=%.1f%%)",
period["start"].strftime("%H:%M"),
period["end"].strftime("%H:%M"),
extended_period["end"].strftime("%H:%M"),
len(extension_intervals),
combined_cv,
)
extended_summaries.append(extended_period)
else:
# Extension would exceed quality gate
_LOGGER_DETAILS.debug(
"%sCross-day extension rejected for period %s-%s: CV=%.1f%% > %.1f%%",
INDENT_L0,
period["start"].strftime("%H:%M"),
period["end"].strftime("%H:%M"),
combined_cv or 0,
PERIOD_MAX_CV,
)
extended_summaries.append(period)
return extended_summaries